Excerpt from the AC/UNU-Millennium Project 1999 State of the Future Report
1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all ? Achieving sustainable development (Opportunity 1); The growth of population and economies interacts adversely with environmental quality and natural resources (Issue 7); Economic growth brings both promising and threatening consequences (Issue 12)
2. How can water conflicts be prevented while making water available to everyone? Fresh water is becoming scarce in localized areas of the world (Issue 2)
3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance ? World population is growing most where people can afford the necessities of life the least (Issue 1); Reducing the rate of population growth (Opportunity 6)
4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes ? Transforming authoritarian regimes to democracies (Opportunity 4)
5. How can global long-term perspectives be more frequently used in policy making? Increasing acceptance of global long-term perspectives in policy making (Opportunity 2)
6. How can the globalization and convergence of information and communications technologies be shaped for the good of all? Globalizing the convergence of information and communications technologies (Opportunity 9); Information technology holds both promise and peril (Issue 10)
7. How can ethical markets increase economic development to reduce the gap between the rich and poor? The gap in living standards between the rich and poor promises to become more extreme and divisive (Issue 3); Encouraging economic development through ethical market economies (Opportunity 11)
8. What can be done to reduce the threat of new and reemerging diseases, and the increasing number of immune micro-organisms? The threat of new diseases and reemerging diseases and immune micro-organisms is growing (Issue 4); The HIV pandemic is spreading (Issue 14)
9. How can the capacity to make correct decisions be improved, as institutions and the nature of work are changing? The capacity to decide seems to be diminishing as issues become more global and complex under conditions of increasing uncertainty and risk (Issue 5); Improving institutions (Opportunity 15); The meaning of work, unemployment, leisure, and underemployment is changing (Issue 15)
10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflict and terrorism ? Terrorism is growing in intensity, scale, and threat (Issue 6); The severity of religious, ethnic, and racial conflicts is increasing (Issue 9); Encouraging diversity and shared ethical values (Opportunity 5); Evolving strategies for world peace and security (Opportunity 7)
11. How can the increasing autonomy of women improve the human condition ? The status of women is changing (Issue 8); Increasing economic autonomy of women and other groups (Opportunity 12)
12. How can organized crime be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises ? Organized crime groups are becoming sophisticated global enterprises (Issue 11)
13. How can the growing energy demand be met safely ? Nuclear power plants around the world are aging (Issue 13); Developing alternative sources of energy (Opportunity 8)
14. What are the most effective ways to accelerate scientific breakthroughs and technological applications to improve the human condition ? Expanding potential for scientific and technological breakthroughs (Opportunity 3); Increasing advances in biotechnology (Opportunity 10); Pursuing promising space projects (Opportunity 14); Promoting the inquiry into new and sometimes counter-intuitive ideas (Opportunity 13)
15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? Distillation of the Global Lookout questionnaires and interviews during 1998 and 1999
6.
The Internet and its related information and communications technologies have grown faster than any phenomena in history. Interactive cyberspace has become an important new and unprecedented medium for civilization and is evolving towards becoming a global brain and nervous system for humanity. Individuals cross political boundaries electronically, making new alliances unknown to traditional power. More than any previous technology, the Internet promises to give equal access to rich and poor as prices for computers, software, and telecommunications continue to fall and their capacity and ease of use continues to improve.
There is no agreement about the total number of Internet users, and there is very little agreement on baseline metrics. Estimates of current and projected Internet population vary widely. For example, the Associated Press says that half of North America uses Internet, but according to the Computer Industry Almanac, there were 147 million Internet users in the world at the end of 1998. The Computer Industry Almanac also projects 320 million Internet users by the end of the year 2000, and more than 720 million users at the end of 2005. Of this world total in 2005, 29 percent or 207 million will be made up of users in the US.
As of June 1999, Nua Internet Surveys estimate that there was a total of 179 million users, from which: 97 million in Canada and the U.S.A.; 40 million in Europe; 27 million in Asia/Pacific; 5.3 million in Latin America; 1.2 million in Africa; and 0.88 in the Middle East. From 1997 to 1998 the percent of non-English Internet sites has grown from 2 to 18 percent.
China has 747,000 computer hosts linked to the Internet. The number of Internet users has increased from 670,000 by the end of 1997 to 2.1 million one year later. Since many share Internet accounts, the total number of Chinese using Internet could be 3.4 million according to Peter Lovelock of Hong Kong based Big Brains (who estimates 5.5 million by mid-1999) but 3.8 million are estimated by Matrix East. Currently 49 African countries provide Internet access in their capital cities and UNECA expects all 53 African capitals to be connected next year. By January 1999 there were 10,703 Internet hosts, up from 7,800 six months earlier. The Web population in Kenya, Botswana, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Malawi, Morocco and Tunisia has more than doubled in the past year. Latin American Internet use grew almost 800 percent from 1995 to 1997. Third World Internet growth should continue to accelerate surprising many.
A University of Texas study estimates $301 billion revenue was generated by the Internet in 1998. OECD expects value of all business transactions via the Internet to reach $1 trillion by 2004 with far more coming from business-to-business e-commerce transactions than from consumer spending. Forrester Research is more optimistic. They project business-to-business alone to reach $1.3 trillion one year earlier by the end of 2003. Simba Information projects online advertising income to grow from $2.1 billion in 1998 to $7 billion by 2002. International Data Corporation projects worldwide corporate investment in web-enabling technologies to top $2.2 trillion by 2003. One quarter of US venture capital or $3.5 billion went into these technologies last year. Revenues for all US communications services was about $395 billion last year. Just the Internet portion of all communications in the US is expected to be $350 billion by 2001.
About 70 percent of all the schools in the US are now connected to the Internet. Many Ministries of Education are also working to connect all their schools to the international information highway.
The Internet represents one of the most powerful mechanisms of change in the world, affecting everything from science and religion to politics and culture. For developing countries, the Internet possesses the potential means to accelerate economic development, augment hospital services by telemedicine, provide greater and faster access to the world’s knowledge, and become the medium for participating in the world’s economy. Information technology is eliminating some of the blindness about global issues, facilitating self-education about personal health problems, providing live information on what’s happening with such technological efforts as the Mars Lander (the largest Internet event in history), and creating communities for the homebound. Old one-way media tended to be conflict-oriented, holding audiences by the drama of conflict and disagreement. New interactive media tends to be cooperation-oriented, holding users on-line by linking them to people and information. The new media distribute the wealth of information more democratically than previous systems.
Volumetric densities of microprocessors continue to increase (microchips have on the order of 100 million transistors per chip) and clock speeds continue to increase (PC’s with 500 MHz are available on the consumer market at discount prices). Just beyond every impediment to further growth lies an apparent solution: when optical photolithography reaches its limits of resolution, x‑ray and e-beam lithography take the technology to new tiny dimensions. Speed increases with diminishing size and inventions such as the use of copper in micro-chips. Quantum computing when perfected will press the limits imposed by the speed of light. Heat dissipation promises to limit packing density, but heat pipes, and new substrates offer means of heat dissipation. “Spintronics”, the ability to control the spin of electrons in ferro-magnetic material will provide a new approach to both computing and data storage. Quantum dot memory devices promise to store data at unprecedented densities; these devices use electron‑hole pairs that are recorded and read with a laser. One firm has announced a quantum storage system 500 micrometers in diameter, 80 nanometers high that holds more than half a billion stacked quantum dots (New Scientist, 2/27/99). Speech recognition is progressing rapidly and will soon permit natural language conversational interface with machines.
This leads to visions of computer applications that are ubiquitous; essentially all devices‑ from pencils to steering wheels, from shipping boxes to cooking stoves, have built‑in computers for operation, self-diagnosis, self-repair, and inter‑communication with other systems and controllers. Computers will become commodities and unremarkable. Computers also become smarter and in doing so, become colleagues of their users, containing the memories, associations, routines, analyses and data of significance. Brain‑like intelligent systems using neural networks and other simulation technologies will help achieve a more functional understanding of human cognition, intelligence, thought, and self‑consciousness as well as improving the ability to draw inferences from data. Further, the computers will use their speed, capacity, and inductive computational abilities to make using them simpler.
Communications of the future involve the computer, cable television, satellite and telephone systems which are synergizing and combining in ways that will make high bandwidth essentially free to future users. With these new connections, the Internet phenomenon will continue to grow.
The second generation Internet is under construction.
At the same time, as we get more dependent on information technology, its potential for damage could be more than that of conventional weapons, especially when one contemplates the possibilities of information warfare. It also poses a threat to those who tend to oppose cultural change, resent the fast pace of cyber culture, and believe it makes the rich-poor gap wider by accelerating the knowledge gap, increasing automation, and moving jobs to the lowest bidders worldwide.
Automation is displacing human work, making economic growth possible with less employment. If new employment opportunities are not created to address computer-induced and automation-induced unemployment, the unemployed and underemployed could heighten anti-technology sentiments, possibly resulting in political crises. Greater social tension between those who are keeping pace and those who are being left behind is a distinct possibility. Criminal uses of information technology, such as fraud, computer viruses, and even information warfare and cyber-terrorism are another potential threat. Pornography, and other influences deemed unacceptable in most cultures, are creating hostility toward the free growth of the Internet, even though blocker software is rapidly addressing this problem.
Privacy and property rights are also issues of concern, and authenticity of information gathered using the Internet is difficult to establish. Many people find the Internet to be confusing and unorganized, while others find it to be exciting and self‑organizing. Within the next decade, the Internet will be faster and more accessible than ever before. Increasing access to information means we will receive more communications per day, increasing the intensity of our lives, and consuming more of our time and resources.
Fundamental changes are occurring in business practice; the buyer and supplier can meet directly in cyberspace, thus making geography and social status irrelevant. The Internet is the most cost‑effective way to link people and data around the world, spreading modern science and techniques, culture, and various arts more than any other mechanism in history. Equal access between the rich and poor to the same quality information is increasingly possible. Information technology is the new thrust of World Bank policy to address the development gap. A new culture is being created for a positive business environment globally.
Everyone’s life is going to be affected. International financial transfers per day are over $1.5 trillion. Electronic money will facilitate more secure commerce on the Internet allowing instant global delivery of many services. Currently 11% of Internet users bank online. IBM’s software defeated a chess grand champion, a feat considered impossible just a few years ago. The robotization of dangerous and dull work is increasing in surgery, security, health care, space, mining, laboratory, and fast food. Tele-citizens from poorer countries working and living in richer ones can help their original countries as tele-volunteers assisting in the development process.
The development of artificial intelligence and its merger with communications will help develop insight and knowledge from otherwise formless data. Compact multi-language translators will facilitate communications among different language groups, possibly helping bridge cultural gaps.
Despite the problems, information technology is creating a planetary “nervous system” necessary for improving the prospects for humanity. Many in information technology believe that the Internet will help create a more peaceful world by breaking down cultural barriers and national borders. Cultures unable or unwilling to meet in person can choose to share information via Internet web sits, making transborder cooperation easier.
ADDITIONAL INTERVIEWEE COMMENTS
The speed of computers fused with telecommunications capacity has operationalized the term “global”.... This issue is the most important to address, since it cuts across all others. It can contribute to the solution of all the global issues in this report.... This convergence of technology has made new forms of research, distance education, and global marketing possible. We can have live coverage of Arctic explorers or robots on Mars.... There is no question that information technology is transforming the human rights struggle around the world.... Business cannot survive without the Internet today, because it provides a better chance to select partners, resources, laws, markets, everything. Privatization is a global trend that will influence the future development of cyberspace.
Terminals will continue to be smaller, more mobile, and integrated with other services. Submarine cables competed successfully with the previous generation of satellites for transoceanic communications, but the next generation low-orbit mini satellites with high bandwidth capacity signals the next round of growth for the satellite industry. This will increase tele-work in all forms from high tech manufacturing in poor regions to telemedicine, which in turn will further increase the demand for high-speed real-time communications that lets people work anywhere.... It is helping to harmonize standards and humanity in general.... The Web is accessible to disabled.
About 65 percent of the people in the world do not have a telephone.... There are more telephones in Tokyo than in all of Africa. Although the capitals of all countries in Africa may be connected to Internet by 2000, few people will have Internet access due to little infrastructure beyond the capital cities. Yes, they can use mobile telephone system without infrastructure, but it would cost too much.... This is too optimistic in terms of where we are now and our getting there by the year 2000. African access is utopic.... This technology will increase the gap between rich and poor. The price of the computer may fall, but people still need to “buy” and “pay”. The gap between computer literacy and illiteracy will increase; even among computer literate, the gap in capability would increase.... Too much information can make children unmanageable making the current generation gap more extreme. Previous automation replaced physical strength and labor, now automation is replacing knowledge and judgments.
Things are moving too fast to say that the world was Euro-centered, is US-centered, and will be Asian-centered. Instead it will be global-centered after the US model.... It also allows for new forms of money from frequent flyer miles to community service dollars on credit cards that keep track of both conventional money and alternative currencies.
The amount of information technology access described would require sacrifices on privacy, which is not possible by the year 2000. If public policy does not properly address people’s right to privacy, then society will try to block the growth of information technology.... According to the US National Research Council, current US cryptography is not adequate to support the information security requirements of an information society. Indeed, current policy discourages the use of cryptography.... The US uses laws to protect privacy of credit, education, and medical information. Europe has government information officials to guard privacy. The US is very intellectual property rights oriented, whereas Europe is very human rights oriented: intellectual property is the right of all.
In the exploration of the physical world, corporations such as the Dutch East India Company took on responsibility for the rules of development; so, too, the private sector will take the leadership for the rules of the development of the electronic world.... International business consortia are creating rules and selling them to their governments. This may be the strategy that sets the legal structure over the next 5 to 10 years. Keep an eye on the balance between security and corruption.
There was a time when we thought the TV was going to be educational ‑ but for the most part, it is a vast wasteland.... The real issue with Internet is the content. Focus on structuring the content for quality and for learning. All leaders agree that education is of prime importance to development ‑ the Internet is a golden opportunity to this end. I’d hate to see it become a vast wasteland like TV has become. We regulate TV in Canada to prevent our being inundated with US programs. Four Canadian broadcast channels are required and no cable system can carry more US channels than Canadian channels.
Canada focuses more on access than on blocking content as a way to prevent Internet from becoming a medium for conflict, passionate nationalism, and the loss of local culture. The cyberian geography of time and space intersects in multi‑dimensional personal participation. This new reality makes action, reaction, and exchange seem instantaneous, fundamentally changing consciousness and culture.... The development of the mind is the central change, opening new interests in philosophy and ethics.... The global availability of CNN may also educate, in terms of changing attitudes and cultures.
The information technology developed very fast and played a significant role in the framework of UNESCO’s “Man and the Biosphere” program with an information network of 352 natural reserves in more than 80 countries. It greatly promotes this work.
The Russian government that proposed the economic reforms did not have the mechanisms or prioritized policies to realize the reforms. Businesses have had to rely on information technology to participate in the global economy and have had to train personnel abroad to use this technology.
The planetary nervous system is a challenging and fascinating idea, but not that easy to realize. The planetary nervous system should only be considered as an instrument, not as an end in itself.... The synergy of telematics and micro-genetics will be a basis for a major jump in evolution.... Once we understand that this is truly a revolution - and not merely a more efficient way to do what we did in the past - then we will make great progress with this technology.
SUGGESTED ACTIONS TO ADDRESS THIS CHALLENGE WITH A RANGE OF VIEWS
6.1 Make Internet access a right of citizenship.
There is your cybercitizen!.... The right to education and access to public libraries are current rights of citizenship. Internet access is simply an extension of those rights.... Good action, but in many countries, it is a financial problem. But, step by step, society is moving in this direction. It is another culture and it takes time to become a way of life.... Does it mean everyone owns a terminal like the Minitel model in France or does it mean access to public terminals? Our corporation gave Internet access to unemployed in Bristol, UK with just half a day of training. A significant number of them got jobs.
Make a law that access cannot be denied. Providers of Internet services should also have the right to peer point access and transcontinental access across networks.... Capacity will have to keep ahead of demand and alternative means of access should be provided.... China announced that it was slashing the cost of Internet access by 50% and more.
The right of literacy should precede Internet access as a right of citizenship. Internet access presumes educated people. Internet is just one part of the information infrastructure. Let’s get close to 100% literacy first. What happens to the uneducated in an information society?.... Access does not depend upon documentation, things change too fast, but on peer group support.
Connection between rights and laws should be defined…. When such a right is given by somebody without any efforts, it may not work effectively.... The UN should be responsible for it.... The US has to provide the leadership by making it a right in their country first.
6.2 End national telecommunication monopolies; open markets for more than one provider of information/communications technology so that infrastructure requirements are anticipated and provided at reasonable prices.
If government regulation is good, then this will work; if government regulations are poor, than it could lead to chaos. Acceptance of mobile voice satellite communications will continue to open the telecommunications monopolies in the developing world. Some international organization should provide leadership....This is a global trend and happening rapidly....Different companies provide different services (cellular phone companies are different from Internet service providers). However, this deregulation will also increase horizontal mergers among these companies: Internet providers with telephone companies and cellular phone companies with satellite companies.
National telecommunication monopoly is effective until the diffusion of telephone exceeds 10%. After that, the network can spread without subsidy. In the very beginning, subsidies and protections are needed.... We are doing it in Canada.... This is happening now with the evolution of WTO agreements. Half the world does not have telephones because of monopolies. The end of monopoly is inevitable. 69 countries have signed the WTO agreement to end monopolies.
Some international organizations, such as WTO, should help developing countries to avoid the old pace of industrialization.... In some cases, Internet can bypass government monopoly: when the government in Belgrade closed down the radio station B92, RealNetworks has it available on its Internet site.
A study of the Industrial Revolution to see how legislation helped or hindered the diffusion of industrialization concluded that it was better not to micromanage the development of specific technologies, but rather to ease the way for enabling broad new categories of interaction between new technologies.
6.3 Find incentives for the private sector to provide education and training in information and communications technology and accelerate its transfer to developing countries.
The primary incentive for foreign investment is government acceptance of open competition for private sector information technology companies to sell technology and services.... Net Days [25,000 schools in California were connected to the Internet by 20,000 volunteers in one day], initiated by John Gage of Sun Microelectronics and spreading to other countries, gives a day to a school to wire it to computers and Internet access.... The private sector is already willing; if governments open the markets, then corporations don’t need an incentive to come in.
Training can be imbedded in consumer products and the products can be more user-friendly requiring less training. Screen phones can get 80% of the Internet by simply touching the screen. Professional systems will have greater training requirements. Those companies that do a better job of training support will earn more than those who don’t.... Many in the private sector are in distance education in areas only found in universities previously. Private sector could freely distribute CD-ROMs with label showing government approval as a marketing strategy.... Our corporation helped small companies begin trading on Internet. Since small companies have little or no investment in conventional distribution channels, they changed their business practices quickly.
There is little private sector in developing counties; hence, government may have to be responsible for it.
6.4 Accelerate international development organizations’ efforts in training and applications.
This is increasing and IDRC is a leader.... UNESCO could support “bare foot” computer teachers for the youth who learn fast…. The World Bank created the concept of a “Knowledge Bank” as kiosks of information accumulated from the various UN agencies linked together. In the past leaders don’t want to share knowledge; the World Bank says, “let’s put knowledge in the hands of everyone”.
The international community has already done some work on the training of disaster reduction.... UNDP offers free Internet training in Africa.... Developed countries should provide the information technology for developing countries and help with free training, low price, volunteer services, and technology transfer.
6.5 Create low-cost hand-held computers with direct satellite access for low income regions to access educational software and telephony with elementary literacy as a first priority.
This is a key technology. The target price will be a few hundred dollars per unit. It is a much better decision to put “fiber in the sky” than string copper wires to the rural poor in developing countries with difficult terrain. There are six or seven big projects racing to create the satellite networks to support this technology.... Once all this is put up, distance will mean nothing.... Will happen more and more with many applications in agriculture and health.... Countries should create their own ways of educating their people, while keeping global communication as a tool.... Virtual reality pioneer, Jaron Lanier, recently invented and prototyped a new hand-held communications device for the Third World. It does not require any infrastructure of wires or microwave towers, rather it works on a virus-like principle of propagating messages directly between units. A radical departure from existing communications methods.
6.6 Governments should provide free Internet access and training to the public at public libraries and schools.
Corporations will lead this development, but governments have to open the business environment to competition to accelerate the provision of access. The WTO can pressure governments to open the competitive environment. OECD found that countries with open competition for telecommunications have six times more telecommunications access per capita.... Use more access points like Hong Kong does with free local telephone calls from restaurants, etc.... I would prefer easy access to free access; people may not value what is given freely, but this action is rated too highly. Who finances it? Macropolicies would be more effective then this micropolicy.... Less than 8 percent of the world read and write English and only half the world has telephones.
How to get the right information, in the right format, at the right time to people, rather than focusing solely on the “information highway,” is the key.... Simple instructional materials using slide shows, booklets, films, audio cassettes, video with local language voice-overs, and other more basic or low‑technology alternatives to the Internet are very important, and this is a more effective way to address the knowledge gap. Don’t waste governments’ funds in low‑income countries on extending the information highway; corporations should do it.
Creating and improving the telecommunications infrastructure are more important than free access at local libraries and schools.... With all the talk about the Internet, we have overlooked the fact that half of all the new telephones in use around the world are mobile phones.
6.7 Regulate the content and use of international networks as little as possible while promoting the use of software that blocks reception via Internet of offensive materials.
The issue is access and putting blocks into software, not regulating content. Also promote quality.... Correct, Internet is too large to manage.... You can control peoples’ reception of information from servers and you can control peoples’ access to servers, but you cannot control peoples’ communications with each other.... A society has a right to say, “not on my screen”, through democratic processes rather than executive orders of an authoritarian regime. Just as there should be proper driving ethics on roads, so too there should be proper information interchange ethics on the global information highway (Cyberethics).
Many software companies and citizen groups have already offered software to block offensive materials.... This software is desirable, practical, and available.... Even if the pornography issue is solved, some cultures will resist open access to the Internet to prevent their people’s being influenced by other cultures and English dominance.... This issue should be addressed with civic education and family conversations. Families could “surf the Net” together - “family surfing”.... Cultures have to respect each other’s preferences.
This could be a case for a new form of liability as a deterrence.... Some regulations have been done. The UN should lead.... People want the security of a market place with reasonable rules and as much self‑governance as possible.... Adopt a global rather than an international posture.... Everything from police to airports is being privatized, so, too, should be the key elements of the Internet.... The question is whose hands? It should be self‑regulation, not government. It is a new form of community. It can be controlled: you can bomb an offender with viruses, using force in the way that governments are traditionally empowered to do. But it is no longer subject to national law (but will the US accept that?).
6.8 Strengthen intellectual property rights and suitable enforcement mechanisms to encourage development of information technology products that can be marketed in developing countries.
The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) has addressed intellectual property rights in print, video, and film, but currently they are examining electronic copyrights.... This requires new concepts about information - a day‑old newspaper is not worth much, but how much would you pay for a month‑old medical journal that had information you needed? There are different views of information ownership and rights in different cultures.... What is fair use? What can you copy for educational use? The effort to copy thousands of electronic books is different from the effort to copy thousands of printed books; there is virtually no limit to copying on the Internet, but there are physical limits in other media.... We need to develop suitable copyright enforcement mechanisms, maybe by sending in electronic investigators... Call for equal leadership with the private sector on this issue.
Not possible and contradicts Action 6.6.... This is the most sensitive subject in the information technology world today and it is extremely difficult to enforce. There are no solutions in sight.... Since materials have to be copied at some stage and “watermarks” can be removed, it is not possible to protect intellectual property rights. Instead we need new models for making money. Publishers need to change.... Current idea of Intellectual Property is based on a value in Industrial age. Good ideas should be shared with many people. Look at the free‑software or shareware phenomena. For me, it is important to have honor, not money.
Some cultures do not recognize this as a problem - it is a form of cultural blindness.... “If our piracy problem is not resolved, China’s software industry will not grow,” said Yin Zhihe, executive chairman of the Beijing Software Industry Association. China shut down 72 pirate production lines between 1996 and 1998, but barely caused a blip in pirate software. Informed officials estimate that 96% of software used in China is pirated. One reason given is that the Chinese people have little tradition for intellectual property rights, but the concept is gaining ground slowly. In early April the State Council, or Chinese Cabinet, reissued a ban on government use of pirated software.
If I developed an excellent idea, I would like people to remember that the developer is me, but I would not charge.... There is a difference between those who do this for a living and those who do it for a hobby.... We should protect the rights of inventors, and give certain priority to developing countries.... LDC countries should also create their own copyright systems.... The idea of information rights should be developed instead of proprietary rights. The concept of information rights should include universal benefits for humanity.... The UN should lead.
6.9 Corporations, in cooperation with governments, should promote policies that anticipate and expand network capabilities that tend to help avoid communications overload.
If more than one company can sell data lines and switches in a country, then the capacity problem will be solved by the private sector.... Bill Gates asserts that capacity will grow faster than demand so that Internet traffic jams will be short term phenomena.... This is a purely commercial decision.... Direct satellite access, cable television, and new optical fiber systems will address this.... I would prefer that governments do this.
6.10 Study and understand the virtues and consequences of the “extended enterprise” and the possible emergence of cartels of companies linked (by extranets) into closed-trading, on-line cooperatives.
About a third of all international trade is within multinational companies.... As Intranets spread and continue to be linked to each other, there probably won’t be an Internet in the future. Instead there would be a set of documented services via Intranets. The “Club model” is where the action is. Everyone will need a universal identity card, which gives access to all the services you have bought.... “Extended Enterprise,” as defined by the “Next Generation Manufacturing Project” is the seamless integration of a group of companies and suppliers (industrial, educational, investment, and governmental) that collaborates to create and support a timely and cost-effective service or product; hence, it does have virtues too.... The development of company networks is a good thing, but you want to avoid another form of corporate monopoly.... For secret businesses, some important institutions and advanced technology, the use of an Intranet is necessary.
Who pays for the electronic commerce on the Internet? Infrastructure? If the world trades on the net, and let’s say we have a lot of “supranets” ‑ then we might go back ultimately to ‑ trade that is not free ‑ restricted to supranets. Like “Supranet Trading Blocs” Could end up having trade barriers due to development of supranet.
6.11 Promote international electronic commerce through organizations such as UN, WTO, and the World Bank.
Electronic commerce is the key to success in the foreseeable future. It can be promoted by the World Bank and others, but its growth will be driven by virtual or cyber shops that the general public can use to order personal items like wine and airplane tickets. Consumers get better and more detailed information on products via shops on Internet than they do in regular shops. Since exchange rates fluctuate and cultures relate differently to money, we need harmonization of international standards for electronic commerce.
The ITU, OECD, European Commission, and others are very active in this.... There is a model code ‑ the UN Commission on International Trade Law. Also there is UNCTAD.
Good, but unlikely because these systems do not look at the business system as a whole.... It is functioning gradually and should be adapted to the conditions of different countries. One of the most important aspects, especially in the developing countries, is the contradiction between labor and high technology.
6.12 Promote tele-citizens: people from poorer nations who live and work in richer nations who help develop their original countries via volunteer telecommuting.
It is very significant, and the original country should be aware of the importance of using these resources.... Should be encouraged.... The idea is good and feasible. The work was begun in some places. The UN should lead.... Good idea, but only a small percent of the professionals overseas would volunteer.
What are the responsibilities of a tele‑citizen?.... More and more people are seeing themselves as international people, global citizens and many great innovations have been created by people who view themselves this way.... The private sector and individuals should also lead and support this.
Reverse tele-citizens exist in India and China who work for software companies at a tenth of the cost of their western counterparts. Many more could be employed, but employers don’t want to be seen as exporting jobs. This is an unrecognized form of protectionism. India creates more computer scientists each year than US; western software industry will be displaced by 2010.... Avoid creating an electronic Victorian British Empire.... Countries themselves have to develop their own ways.
6.13 Create an ongoing forum to freely explore the potentials of emerging world cyberspace.
This forum could also take leadership to make recommendations about other actions to address this issue.... This forum would perhaps make thinking about the future more respectable, but this would really only be a marketing device - and must be fully interactive (via the Internet).
There are many already doing this, such as UNESCO, ITU, UNIDO, WTO, OECD, the International Chamber of Commerce, but others can contribute.... If one is to lead, then it should be an NGO, with all others involved in a “global teach‑in”.... Add the private sector.
The Millennium Project, World Future Society, World Futures Studies Federation, and the Club of Rome are that now. Internet is its own forum and democratic pluralism will flourish in this environment.... Many are exploring that now; no need for more.... It’s called Internet!
6.14 Governments, with assistance from NGOs and corporations, should recognize potential impacts and advantages of information technologies on employment and institute large‑scale and entrepreneurial training for emergent or growing economic activities.
It is really important for everyone (governments, organizations, and individuals) to recognize that the information society is very different from the industrial society. The assumptions made by each about life are different. If countries do not understand the new assumptions, they will lose out. For instance, local government will become much more important; small and microenterprises will be different, perhaps just a consortium of friends, but operating globally. Size is not important - consultancies could have a limit of 35 people before they split up into smaller units again.... Although some corporations have laid off workers, overall employment in this sector is increasing.... The amount and quality of employment is a function of knowledge and attitude per capita, not increasing information technology per capita.
6.15 Corporations should develop computers and software adapted for Third World and non‑Western cultures.
This is the mission of the UNU International Institute for Software Technology (IIST).... Governments could be advised by NGOs on how to implement this action.... What adaptation is really needed?.... Local adaptation and software authoring are being done and will continue rapidly.... Third World governments should take some leadership to create incentives for their own local software entrepreneurs to create their own culturally and linguistically oriented software.... Don’t make new local software because it would cripple development; non‑Western cultures can adapt the software better to their needs than others can write new software for special local circumstances.
6.16 Governments should change medical and education laws to accommodate on‑line consultation as legitimate and covered by insurance.
Don’t limit this just to “consult” but allow for access to data to help diagnose oneself, find treatments, and keep one’s own health records.... A growing number of policymakers, health care providers, and consumers believe information resources offer great hope for addressing concerns about cost, quality, and access to health care. Judiciously collected and effectively communicated, information can help professionals provide better care, turn patients into more enlightened consumers of health services, and ultimately enable individuals and communities to address some of the root causes of illness before professional intervention is required.... This is only a US problem. The many forms of telemedicine and tele-health are the way of the future.... NGOs should be in charge of these changes.
6.17 Support efforts to create software for compact multi-language translator; increasing mutual understanding among citizens around the world.
UNU is funding this now.... Several Japanese companies are working on this.... We have started working on it now and hope for support from the Japanese Ministry of Education.... This is especially good for a bilingual country like Canada.... Maybe more likely than machine language translation is a simplified global English.... It will come on its own; hence, no need to support it.... It is necessary, but the developed countries should provide more support to the developing countries.... Governments should give support.... The UN, governments and NGOs should lead.
6.18 Initiate a global computer recycling upgrade program to get the price down to $100 per unit containing basic education software commercially sponsored.
OK for young people and schools, but not for professionals. Professionals need software compatibility with current equipment. Since the PC capacity is increasing so fast and price is falling so fast, price savings will be too small to justify associated problems on international incompatibility for professionals. We never recycled calculators to the developing world because the next generation was better and cost less… WebTV in the US is now within the $300 range.... Good, this will help the world have a common way of thinking.
It is cheaper to supply new equipment for public access. Training will be the major cost. For public access only a browser is needed. Unworkable and the technology industry itself is constantly driving down the price. The marketplace will take us there.
Develop content-related standards, graphics, and objectives for Internet to make it less confusing for users....The idea of cyber city needs to be approached by the UN. We ought to shape our environment by using new architectural electronic environments to bring people together.... The answers may be found in technologies yet to be fielded. Promote competition.... Give people alternatives.... and the people will collectively regulate the providers.... Maintain the emphasis on the broad goals such as increasing understanding, improving literacy, and providing open forums; but decrease the emphasis on regulatory aspects which are probably not achievable anyway -‑ except in the most extreme cases.... Model successful projects and make the information available.... Millennium Project might become an advance point for a huge social and economic learning utilizing UN information and virtual world in cyberspace.
Foster international cooperation to ensure that IT is not monopolized. Support efforts such as the “Open Source” movement of the software development community and encourage policies to nurture them into global efforts. While antitrust efforts in the IT arena is predominantly a US activity now, the issue, because of its long term implications, should be given international attention and support. In view of the speed and the evolutionary nature of changes taking place, intervention or regulation by government(s) may not be the most appropriate response. Rather, encouraging and ensuring the survival of grass root efforts that could counter-balance the power of corporate giants, would help maintain a strong, healthy, evolutionary ecology for the IT industry.
Efforts such as those of the Free Software Foundation (see http://www.gnu.org/) or the “Open Source” movement (see http://www.opensource.org ) from the software development community should be promoted. While these efforts have been gaining momentum, media attention and mainstream commercial support lately, they need to be nurtured and possibly even protected before they could become global endeavors. They provide frameworks that promise evolutionary environments for non-discriminatory sharing and distribution of software. These are good examples of the type of efforts that have the vision and mission to truly enable information technology to work for everyone and bridge the gap between the have’s and have-not’s, and should, therefore, be encouraged and be given the opportunity to thrive.
Develop a new kind of educational system using this technology to augment other systems. Students should not replace the use of an encyclopedia, but complement its use by Internet.... Such innovation may be stimulated by increasing competition among Japanese education businesses due to the falling number of students.... Take technology of network progresses into consideration in planning.... Specify the ends to be achieved by the actions.
International organizations like the WTO, ITU, and EU should help coach governments as to their role in promoting global harmonization of communications rules and standards.... Understand how to prevent “information warfare” with closed hierarchical networks beyond popular control.